blog http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/ The GlobalSecurity.org SITREP blog provides diverse perspectives on military, security, and related topics. Unlike the website, which sticks to the facts, it is a venue for opinions. If you are a blogger or other writer in search of an audience, toil in obscurity no more. en Copyright 2026 Tue, 26 Mar 2024 12:40:05 -0500 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Stabilizing Northern Gaza Outweighs an Assault on Rafah strongly opposes Israel launching an assault on Rafah to demolish Hamas's four remaining battalions. This is because such an attack would likely cause high civilian casualties and hinder humanitarian aid from entering Gaza via Egypt. Currently, 1.4 million Palestinians reside in Rafah due to the ongoing conflict, which has displaced 80 percent of Gaza's 2.3 million inhabitants. In response to concerns, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari has promised that, before any offensive, Israel will provide temporary housing, food, water, and other necessities to Rafah's civilians in "humanitarian islands" across central Gaza's Deir el-Balah Governorate. However, instead of targeting Rafah, Jerusalem should prioritize relocating the remaining 300,000 civilians in northern Gaza southward to deprive Hamas of terrorist safe havens. Click here to read the rest of this article]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2403261036-stabilizing-northern-gaza-outw.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2403261036-stabilizing-northern-gaza-outw.htm Micah Levinson Israel Tue, 26 Mar 2024 12:40:05 -0500 Dissolve Gaza, Expand the West Bank remains "clear, consistent, and unequivocal that Gaza is Palestinian land and will remain Palestinian land, with Hamas no longer in control of its future and with no terror groups able to threaten Israel." Biden favors a revamped PA governing Gaza even as administration officials concede the plan's unfeasibility. Politico quoted a State Department official saying, "We're stuck... There's a strong policy preference for the PA to play a governing role in Gaza, but it has significant legitimacy and capability challenges." ]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2402121035-dissolve-gaza-expand-the-west.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2402121035-dissolve-gaza-expand-the-west.htm Micah Levinson Israel Mon, 12 Feb 2024 19:42:44 -0500 Turning Wadi Gaza into an Armistice Line: Israel's Best-case Scenario. published an article addressing "what happens on the day after we topple Hamas." Defense Minister Yoav Gallant outlined Israel's war objectives before the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on October 20. Destroying Hamas's military infrastructure constituted his strategy's "first phase." White House spokesperson John Kirby soon thereafter raised the possibility of multinational peacekeepers policing a post-Hamas Gaza. Click here to read the rest of this article]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2312251034-turning-wadi-gaza-into-an-armi.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2312251034-turning-wadi-gaza-into-an-armi.htm Micah Levinson Israel Mon, 25 Dec 2023 12:03:37 -0500 Netanyahu's Government Will Likely Survive Until 2026 not outlast the war in Gaza are unfounded. His prewar coalition need not face Israeli voters until the next scheduled Knesset election in October 2026. Unless Likud's popularity soars following a successful military campaign against Hamas, no coalition faction would benefit from early elections. Moreover, because Netanyahu and his religious-Zionist coalition partners reject Opposition Leader Yair Lapid's proposed postwar political arrangements for Gaza, ceding power before sabotaging those arrangements appears unlikely. Those predicting Netanyahu's imminent political demise assume Israel will hold elections immediately after Operation Swords of Iron and the opposition will win. A November 3 Camil Fuchs survey found 64 percent of Israelis agree that "Israel must hold elections at the war's end." Furthermore, every poll since October 7 shows Benny Gantz's National Unity winning a large Knesset plurality, almost entirely at Likud's expense. Even if this sentiment persists, Netanyahu is not obligated to call an election after the military operation.]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2311151033-netanyahus-government-will-lik.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2311151033-netanyahus-government-will-lik.htm Micah Levinson Israel Wed, 15 Nov 2023 20:49:02 -0500 Anti-logic in the United States The policy position of the United States with respect to the present armed conflict in the region where Russia and Ukraine share a border is incoherent. Whenever considering a new project one must be aware of the expected cost and the expected revenue of the project. A project which only loses money is a project which is never started. A project with a positive present value, after discounting, must be considered among the range of projects with a positive present value before determining anything about the relative merit of the project being considered. There is no possible world in which the United States can generate a positive expected return on the Ukraine project. The United States' position has been to throw piles of money at politicians and military generals. The United States spent $150 billion and counting on a project which does not have any revenue streams attached. Tax payers have funded a project which will return them $0. When the last missiles have been fired and the final borders are drawn, the realized gain earned for American taxpayers will still be $0. The quantitative profile of the conflict, for the United States, is one where the United States taxpayers record a return on investment of -100%. A project where the expected ROI is negative is one which must be precluded from consideration. Yet, the United States policy position has been to throw good money after bad. Have you ever heard of the sunk cost fallacy? Despite only recording a negative ROI in Ukraine some people have suggested spending even more money on a proposition which, according to reasonable standards, must be ruled out altogether. X marks the spot where the anti-logic has been identified. The x belongs wherever there is an expression of the Ukraine project's self-defeating proposition. http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2310281032-anti-logic-in-the-united-state.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2310281032-anti-logic-in-the-united-state.htm Grant Ferowich Sat, 28 Oct 2023 02:51:29 -0500 Egypt Cynically Rejects a Safe Corridor for Gaza's Civilians: Muslim Countries Demand Palestinian Civilians Accept Martyrdom to Preserve the Ummah's Honor murdering more than 800 civilians during Operation al-Aqsa Flood persuaded Jerusalem that it must finally dismantle the terrorist group committed to Israel's destruction. However, Gaza's high population density will result in appalling civilian casualties unless noncombatants can seek refuge elsewhere until Israel completes its mission. Despite this, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi flatly opposes American, European, and UN proposals to establish a safe corridor for refugees fleeing the fighting. Cairo's al-Azhar al-Sharif, the primus inter pares among Sunni mosques and whose Grand Imam is a government appointee, explained on Twitter its opposition to safe corridors. First, it praised the Hamas attack that "restored our confidence, breathed spirit into us, and restored life to us after we thought it would never return again." Then al-Azhar warned Palestinian civilians against diminishing the Ummah's massacre-induced euphoria by seeking sanctuary in Egypt:
Al-Azhar reiterates its salute to the steadfast Palestinians and appreciates their keen clinging to their dear homeland and perseveringly holding on to its soil, regardless of the cost and sacrifices involved. Indeed, their lands represent their dignity and their honor... It is better for you to die on your land as knights, heroes, and martyrs than to leave it to the usurping colonialists.
]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2310131031-egypt-cynically-rejects-safe-c.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2310131031-egypt-cynically-rejects-safe-c.htm Micah Levinson Israel Fri, 13 Oct 2023 14:35:23 -0500 Prigozhin's African Empire Offers an Alternative to Kremlin Largesse enflamed Islamist insurgencies across Western Africa as jihadist groups obtained much of the Libyan military's ordnance. These insurgencies particularly threatened Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. France launched Operation Barkhane in 2014 to help West African countries fight terrorism, deploying 5,500 French soldiers at its peak. Smaller US and European contingents reinforced the French-led operation. Dissatisfied with Barkhane's progress, military juntas deposed democratic governments in Mali (2020) and Burkina Faso (2022), ended military cooperation with France, and sought Russian military support. Russian foreign military interventions predominantly rely on private military companies (PMCs) with PMC Wagner emerging in recent years as the most powerful. Mali's new government retained Wagner at a cost of $10 million per month, probably paid in kind with natural resources. Wagner's owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, transformed his PMC into Moscow's unofficial foreign legion and became Russia's most powerful oligarch. By 2023, Putin so feared Prigozhin's power, that he prioritized containing Wagner's business over expanding Russian influence in Africa. Moscow's and Yevgeny Prigozhin's contradictory reactions to Niger's July 26 coup best illustrates this. Click here to read the rest of this article]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2308031030-prigozhins-african-empire-offe.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2308031030-prigozhins-african-empire-offe.htm Micah Levinson Russia Thu, 03 Aug 2023 08:56:00 -0500 The Mind Must Have a Firewall A paper written by Timothy L. Thomas for "The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters" in 1998 introduces the chemical-electrical activity in the brain, heart and nervous system as the human body's "data processors." Thomas concludes in no uncertain terms, "We are on the threshold of an era in which these data processors of the human body may be manipulated or debilitated." Thomas' report was produced some 25 years ago now. Already, Thomas warned "strobe lights have been known to cause epileptic seizures" while stating an "entirely new arsenal of weapons, based on devices designed to introduce subliminal messages or to alter the body's psychological and data-processing capabilities, might be used to incapacitate individuals. These weapons aim to control or alter the psyche, or to attack the various sensory and data-processing systems of the human organism." Thomas must have been referring to a banned Pokemon episode known as Electric Soldier Porygon, which is a TV episode responsible for emitting 12 Hz waves causing 700 Japanese children to be admitted into hospitals due to seizures. In the episode, Pikachu has a move to stop certain types of missiles. To stop the missiles against his onscreen foe, Pikachu relies on the Thunderbolt attack, which causes strobe lights to appear on the screen. Instead of simply fending off the foe, Pikachu's Thunderbolt caused serious harm to hundreds of kids in real life. What is at stake? "The body is capable not only of being deceived, manipulated, or misinformed but also shut down or destroyed--just as any other data-processing system. The 'data' the body receives from external sources--such as electromagnetic, vortex, or acoustic energy waves--or creates through its own electrical or chemical stimuli can be manipulated or changed just as the data (information) in any hardware system can be altered." Thomas has warned there are weapons systems which aim to manipulate and degrade the body's natural biological systems through means such as electromagnetic, vortex, or acoustic energy waves. Firewalls are essentially devices which shut down traffic in a computer network. If the network detects there is a sufficient amount of traffic attempting to adversely affect the performance of a computer network the firewall will activate and sever the computer's main servers from the malicious traffic. Computers are able to run without being slowed down or frozen by malware or viruses thanks to firewalls. There are physical and virtual firewalls. In the physical version, a computer system will literally be detached from the area where there is undesirable and malicious activity. These firewalls basically keep computers safe to run unencumbered by the adverse effects of malware and viruses. There are also virtual firewalls which exist to protect your activity while using a virtual machine. The idea is the same. When there is unauthorized, undesirable, and malicious network traffic then block the computer system from receiving the malicious traffic as a network input. Thomas' US Army War College report goes on to discuss an argument offered by a "young, well-intentioned" researcher named Dr. Victor Solntsev, who was affiliated with the Baumann Technical Institute in Moscow. Solntsev argues in light of external sources of electrical-chemical, gravitational, or acoustic energy waves which may impact a human body the human body must be viewed as an "open system, instead of simply as an organism or closed system." Thomas summarizes Solntsev's findings as follows:"One's physical environment, whether through electromagnetic, gravitational, acoustic, or other effects, can cause a change in the psycho-physiological condition of an organism." Solntsev's argument motivates the paper: the human mind does not have a firewall which proactively detects malicious activity. The argument I am offering is there must be resiliency toward any type of malicious activity which can harm both Americans, specifically, and humans, generally. Failing to build capacity to intercept and deny attempts to harm Americans is not an option. Firewalls are not some abstract concept. A team in the United States has developed a device called a Cyber Shield to protect the body and the mind from malicious electromagnetic, vortex, or acoustic energy wave. The shield neutralizes "extremely low frequency" or ELF waves. Users report the results to be nothing short of remarkable. The description of the Cyber Shield is as follows: "This is ELF/VLF/MW protective hardware. It helps to protect against neuro attacks such as forced focus, emotional manipulation and some physical attacks. It does not stop V2K, but does break the forced focus effects to allow it to be ignored so you can focus on what you need to do. It comes with 1 shield, 9 antennas, 2 power adapters, and 1 Touch Screen." The unit runs for $3,600, however the vendor does offer a way to pay over time for those who don't have the full amount immediately, but urgently need the security, protection and peace-of-mind offered by the Cyber Shield. According to both Thomas and Russian army Major I. Chernishev, the development of "psy" weapons has been happening across militaries all over the world for several decades. During the course of this arms race microwave weapons have been designed to "heat up the body, induce epileptic-like seizures, or cause cardiac arrest," and systems for aiming low-frequency radiation at people have been constructed to affect "the electrical activity of the brain" and "cause flu-like symptoms and nausea." At the end of his report, Thomas concludes "we need to spend more time researching how to protect the humans in our data management structures." In the worst case scenario, the new range of weapons could cause bloodless death. According to Thomas, there are researchers in Russia and around the world who believe these "psy" weapons "can be used to attack or steal from the data-processing unit of the human body," that is, the mind. Just as America has fielded a capability to protect all Americans from nuclear armaments designed by other nations, an American national security strategy is incomplete without the capability to protect Americans from "psy," microwave, and extremely low frequency weapons. Without securing Americans from the existence of these weapons, Americans involved in keeping secrets might unwittingly divulge such confidential information as where nuclear warheads are stored. There is no chance America can risk such information leaking, hence why systems are required to ensure no American must experience the adverse impacts of hostile foreign countries attempting to harm Americans who have sensitive information. As much as America needs to develop a national cyber shield, much the way Israel has developed the Iron Dome to protect their citizens from rocket fire, every human must be able to live with the peace and security of knowing nobody else is reading their thoughts. The right to practice one's faith without worrying about who is listening, for example, is at stake. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine weighed in on the experience of more than 1,000 US personnel in Cuba who experienced symptoms similar to traumatic brain injury, which are symptoms consistent with the intended effects of psy, microwave, ultra low frequency, electromagnetic, gravitational, and acoustic energy weapons. NASEM concluded in 2020 "directed, pulsed radio frequency energy appears to be the most plausible mechanism in explaining these cases." Bibliography 1. "The Mind Has No Firewall." Timothy L. Thomas. Parameters 28, no. 1 (1998), doi:10.55540/0031-1723.1871. URL where you can download the PDF to read the report yourself: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol28/iss1/12/. 2. "Cyber Shield." URL: https://world-tek-shielding-survival-solutions.mybigcommerce.com/cyber-shield-elf-vlf-mw-protective-hardware/ 3. "New Report Assesses Illnesses Among U.S. Government Personnel and Their Families at Overseas Embassies." National Academics of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. December 5, 2020. URL: https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/12/new-report-assesses-illnesses-among-us-government-personnel-and-their-families-at-overseas-embassies http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2306271029-the-mind-must-have-a-firewall.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2306271029-the-mind-must-have-a-firewall.htm Grant Ferowich General Interest History National Security US Army electric rays electromagnetic pulse attack Tue, 27 Jun 2023 20:07:00 -0500 Where Is Henry Kissinger Getting His Numbers On The Petrodollar Agreement? What does the term petrodollar mean? What is meant by petrodollar recycling? In short, the petrodollar is not a specific thing, per se. Instead, the petrodollar is a concept which arose from a particular agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia. First, start by considering some background information. Oil is a significant commodity. Oil is refined to power cars. People drive cars and trucks to work, to see friends, to transport stuff, and to go on road trips. Being able to transport yourself from one place to another provides a sense of empowerment and independence. Some have called driving the great American meditation. Just get in your car, play some music, and drive until you feel like turning around. The central point about the petrodollar consists in the value of oil in a variety of applications. As an advanced country, the United States goes through a lot of oil. It turns out that other advanced countries are like America. They have a whole bunch of different applications for oil. The demand to put oil in stuff we find valuable, like cars, is really, really large. So, the thinking goes, the selection of currency oil is traded in is really, really important. That's the theoretical background of the petrodollar agreement. The practical import of the petrodollar agreement concerns the largest oil producer in OPEC, the organization of petroleum exporting countries. Several dozen years ago, Saudi Arabia agreed to sell barrels of oil to buyers everywhere solely in terms of United States dollars. The world oil trade is denominated in dollars as a result, except in rare circumstances. Henry Kissinger negotiated this agreement, which has created demand for United States dollars. By pricing oil in dollars, oil-importing nations had to implement mechanisms to transact with dollars, which is supposed to be good for America, or something. But is it? Shouldn't the evidence of the dollar's so-called exorbitant status be exceedingly obvious after five decades of having virtually everyone in the world buy and sell barrels of oil with United States dollars? When people talk about the petrodollar and petrodollar recycling, they are talking about an agreement between OPEC's top producer, Saudi Arabia, and America. The agreement has a couple basic components. Saudi Arabia and its state oil company Saudi Aramco sell oil for dollars. America provides defense products and services for Saudi Arabia. Suppose one of Saudi Arabia's neighbors starts to shoot missiles at Saudi Arabia. America sends in some missile defense systems, for a price. That's the high level theory behind the agreement. Saudi Arabia gets stuff, superior quality defense products and services, and America gets stuff, demand for United States dollars from oil-importing nations. In practice, America sends actual missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia. And in practice, America has fought in areas which in no small part have been influenced by what Saudi Arabia has certainly argued are central to its security. As part of the agreement, Saudi Arabia has received a significant amount of defense support from America. The petrodollar agreement is supposed to be so valuable that the provision of defense services means America comes out ahead. Is that really true? Is the quid pro quo agreement, the "something for something" agreement, really advancing the financial position of the United States? Look at the state of the American financial position to get a better idea of how valuable the petrodollar really is. The American government currently carries a debt load in excess of 100% of the dollar value of the aggregate economic output in a calendar year. Consider a hypothetical case to get a better sense of the magnitude of this data point. If every dollar of U.S. output, which is measured by a term called gross domestic product, went to paying down America's financial obligations in the 2023 calendar year, America would still have debt to pay down. America is the largest economic power in world history. The amount we would pay down in a single year is a really large number. That's a lot of debt! The petrodollar and petrodollar recycling were supposed to be so valuable for America though. If the petrodollar really were so valuable, wouldn't the United States perhaps maintain a net surplus of capital, instead of owing a lot of capital to others? The proof is in the pudding. If the petrodollar were really a savvy move for advancing America's financial position then America would be in a much better financial position, because the petrodollar agreement has been in effect since the 1970s. But, in fact, America is not in a position of having a significant capital surplus as a result of the petrodollar agreement. The valid logical conclusion is simple. The petrodollar agreement has not really helped America in the way Henry Kissinger might have thought it would at the outset. So, where is Henry Kissinger getting his numbers on the petrodollar agreement as being an agreement which advances the financial position of the United States of America? http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2304131028-where-is-henry-kissenger-getti.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2304131028-where-is-henry-kissenger-getti.htm Grant Ferowich History oil petroleum industry Saudi Arabia Thu, 13 Apr 2023 12:25:52 -0500 Israel's "Useless Class" Revolts Against the Supreme Court claims Industrial Era governments "invested heavily in the health, education and welfare of the masses because they needed millions of healthy labourers to work in the factories." However, as economies transition to a high-tech-based, post-industrial age, "the masses are becoming redundant." Harari predicts the masses will become an unemployable, "useless class." And, "once the masses lose their economic importance and political power [emphasis added], the state loses at least some of the incentive to invest in their health, education and welfare." Under such circumstances, he concludes the masses' survival "depends on the good will of a small elite." Such condescension abounds among Silicon Wadi's beneficiaries, who rely on an omnipotent Supreme Court to disenfranchise Israel's "useless class." Three parallel processes starting in the 1980s caused Israel's current constitutional crisis: (1) neomercantilist government policies cultivating a globally-integrated high-tech industry, (2) pauperization through slashing both welfare benefits and public capital stock investment, and (3) judicial empowerment protecting Israel's new oligarchy from redistributive legislation. The 2022 Knesset election produced a coalition vowing to expand Israel's social safety net and protect its agenda from judicial review by restoring parliamentary sovereignty and changing the Judicial Selection Committee's composition. Currently, sitting justices and unelected representatives from the Israel Bar Association comprise a majority of the Judicial Selection Committee's members, meaning Knesset elections cannot alter the Supreme Court's ideological orientation. ]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2303271027-israels-useless-class-revolts.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2303271027-israels-useless-class-revolts.htm Micah Levinson Israel Yuval Noah Harari Mon, 27 Mar 2023 14:19:13 -0500 Remember when Obama and the Russian president ate burgers together? Sometimes you can benefit from taking a step back from the barrage of information many media outlets would like to convince you is necessary to consume on a daily basis. You can also learn from people like Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson quipped later in his life about newspapers, "I rarely think them worth reading, and almost never worth notice." There are certain accounts from newspapers, however, which are particularly pointed and really are worth noticing. One such account is a 2010 report by Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. President Barack Obama dined with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a burger place outside the U.S. capital called Ray's Hell Burger. The two leaders seemed like two people who had a few meetings in the White House, perhaps President Obama had made a note about what kind of food he liked, and next thing you know the pair decided to go have burgers like colleagues who go to do things together after work. However the pair had decided to pick Ray's Hell Burger and not somewhere else, the two men looked like friends as much as anything. The friendship was not simply symbolic. Obama gave his blessing to Russia for Russia to become a member of the World Trade Organization in 2010. Countries don't ship goods thousands of miles away to and from one another for any other reason than because both countries win from trade. The whole point of Russia's ascension to the WTO was to "deepen Russia's integration into the global economy," Obama said. In addition to thanking Medvedev for his friendship and partnership, Obama told Medvedev "Mr. President, the United States will be your partner as you promote the transparency, and accountability, and rule of law that's needed to infuse the spirit of innovation throughout your economy." The resetting of the relationship led by Obama "benefits regional and global security." Here we were, just 13 years ago, and an American leader had promised to be a partner and friend for Russia in their economic development. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Russia has been guided to implement market-oriented reforms by American economists. Larry Summers provided guidance to Russia while serving as the Chief Economist of the World Bank from 1991 to 1993. Summers advised Russia to privatize state-owned enterprises, open up foreign trade and investment, stabilize the ruble, and implement reforms to reduce the role of bureaucratic rules which inhibit growth, among other suggestions. Summers worked on the $24 billion dollar International Monetary Fund loan to Russia in 1996. American economists Jeffrey Sachs, Anders Aslund, and Stanley Fischer provided policy guidance to Russia in the period after the fall of the Berlin Wall. American economists literally designed the policies to privatize Russia and quickly transform the country into a market-based economy. Good for Obama to promise Medvedev in 2010 that America would be a good friend and partner in helping foster innovation and accountability in Russia. http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2303261026-remember-when-obama-and-the-ru.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2303261026-remember-when-obama-and-the-ru.htm Grant Ferowich History Politics Russia Russia Sun, 26 Mar 2023 23:35:55 -0500 Israel's Constitutional Crisis is Class Warfare declared in a 1992 speech at Haifa University that the Knesset unwittingly surrendered its constitutional supremacy by enacting Basic Law: Human Dignity and Liberty along with Basic Law: Freedom of Occupation. Barak does not explain how these two statutes magically bind all future parliaments while granting the Supreme Court sole authority to interpret them and nullify any legislation conflicting with their interpretations. He merely asserts,
Not everyone knows this, but recently a revolution has occurred in Israel... A Knesset law may no longer infringe the basic rights mentioned [in those two statutes], unless it is enacted for a worthy purpose, even then only to the extent necessary, and it fits the values of the state of Israel as a Jewish, democratic state.
He believed interpreting the statutes' ambiguous wording required "an awareness of the legal, historical, and social developments that we have witnessed and those yet to emerge." Unfazed by this seemingly impossible task, Barak concluded, "Israel has the best of judges at all levels. Now that we have been given the tools, we will do the work."]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2302271025-israels-constitutional-crisis.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2302271025-israels-constitutional-crisis.htm Micah Levinson General Interest Israel Mon, 27 Feb 2023 14:52:35 -0500 Lifting Sanctions on Russia unprecedented sanctions on the Kremlin. The sanctions were set in place in response to Russia's war. Regime change was specifically not part of this objective. In fact, the United States has a long history of working cooperatively with autocratic regimes, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and previously Russia. However, because of how the situation has unfolded, these two objectives (ending the war and changing the regime) have essentially merged as the conflict has become an existential challenge for the West. Not since Hitler has a single individual been able to personally control a state so completely. Putin is now personally responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, trillions of dollars of damages, and widespread disruption of the international community. The UN International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine has concluded that an array of war crimes, violations of human rights and international humanitarian law have been committed in Ukraine. President Biden's initial comment on Putin's actions, "for God's sake, this man cannot remain in power," was promptly walked back to a focus on weakening Russia. But Biden's comment was absolutely correct. Putin's removal has to be an objective, and not just a US objective. It is not a case of opposing a foreign leader because of objection to internal programs but because Putin's leadership threatens global stability, undermining peace and prosperity in Europe, including for the Russian people themselves. Yet, as Michael Rubin comments, the administration is reluctant to seek victory. Those who do support seeking victory, typically see it as seeking Ukraine's absolute victory or giving Ukraine what it needs to exit the fight. There are two basic problems with these proposals. First, they are heavily focused militarily. More importantly, they do not address the underlying confrontation of Russia with the world. The United States needs to stand up to its traditional global leadership role and promote the emergence of a positive Russian government. This could fundamentally improve the entire global strategic situation A cease fire could halt hostile military operations but not lift sanctions. Ukraine is totally opposed to relinquishing any territory, even temporarily. And Putin adamantly needs to show some kind of victory. A cease fire under these conditions would provide no basis for a peace agreement to end the war, addressing war crimes and reparations. Lacking that, there is no end of the war in sight, and no basis for lifting the sanctions. A cease fire would shift the confrontation from a military contest to a diplomatic and socio-economic one. The confrontation challenges Russia on a global scale; the ultimate objective is not protecting territory in Ukraine but promoting the emergence of a more progressive Russian government. The center element of the sanctions is Plutin - the combination of Putin and his plutocracy that has taken control of Russia and led it into a blind alley, waging war not only against Ukraine but against the Russian people. The West is slowly recognizing this as a real existential threat. Lifting of sanctions would require Russia to renounce its claims of sovereignty over regions of Ukraine. This simply cannot happen with Putin in place. A new and more progressive Russian government is now the only way out of the war. The West needs to make it absolutely clear that the sanctions are not directed against the Russian people, but against Putin's ability to continue the war. Minimizing Russian assets is critical because Putin is draining all the assets he can from the Russian people to support this war effort. Ending the war and ending sanctions could lead to a whole new era of peace and prosperity in Europe. The sudden burst of military effort brought on by the war in Ukraine could be replaced by a sudden collapse of the need for military expansion. Budgets could focus on development. Arms control would become a central area of cooperation. Globally, support for autocracy would be dramatically lessened. Such a situation would obviously not be attractive to Putin; economic development is actually one of his greatest fears, a fear that the people would actually take charge as happened with several earlier color revolutions. This is what drives Putin's focus on internal repression and what makes public uprisings unlikely, reinforced by broad public support for traditional authoritative governments. The Russian elite supports Putin out of self-preservation and the wider public largely accepts his baseless claim that Russia's survival and territorial integrity are threatened by the West. But sanctions have also made mid-level officials, bureaucrats and entrepreneurs deeply aware of the impact Putin is having on the country. They are not beneficiaries of the plutocratic system, but rather also victims of Putin and sensitive to the dramatic impact that the sanctions are actually having as the Russian economy is imploding. The West needs to stress that the alternative to sanctions is not a shattered Russia, but a peaceful and prosperous Europe that would include a dynamic new Russia. The West needs to give that vision of a new Russia as high a visibility as possible, focusing on how it would dramatically change the situation. - Russian energy supplies are now a challenge for Europe but in a new Europe, Russia would once again be an important player. Western energy managers need to outline what a positive relationship could look like in the future - Western companies that have withdrawn from Russia need to re-energize discussions with potential partners in Russia, outlining what positive programs could be re-established once sanctions are gone. - International organizations also need to re-energize discussions with Russian counterparts, stressing their interest in renewing positive programs. The Russian diaspora has to be encouraged to join in this effort. - Thousands of highly educated Russians who have fled the country in recent months would be the first to return if a new system emerged, and they are badly needed. The Russian diaspora has deep roots in the region and could be a crucial element in building a better Russia, facilitating dynamic economic ties between their countries of residence and a new Russia. - There is now a new-found effort to mount a coordinated effort against Putin's regime as a Russian Action Committee is laying out a detailed vision how to dismantle the current Russian government and install new representative one. Overall, mid-level officials and everyday Russians need to see an attractive picture of a dynamic Russia as sanctions are lifted in response to the emergence of new governmental arrangements. Outreach to the Russian people is essential. The United States and its allies need to stress the willingness to support economic development in Russia and build a mutually beneficial trade relationship. Some of the prior relationships, particularly with energy supply, were overly one-sided and need to be adjusted. The Russian people have to see the absolute sham of Putin's claim of a threat from the West. Detailed information on Putin's corruption, on the major losses of the Russian military - including a major Ukrainian attack on a Russian barracks - and on the devastation of the Russian economy need to be widely distributed within Russia. The ultimate objective is to demonstrate to the Russians how economic integration with the West would support fundamental development. The central objective of the confrontation with Russia has to be doing what should have been done 30 years ago - integrate Russia economically into the Industrialized World. That is a daunting task, thwarted then by oligarchs determined to keep control of economic systems. That this is the alternative to sanctions has to be made crystal clear to the Russian public. The Western world with US leadership needs to push for a new and more progressive Russian government that can work cooperatively to address and correct as far as possible the destruction of the war in Ukraine. This would significantly decrease autocracy globally and raise the potential for meaningful talks on nuclear arms reduction. Sanctions have a mixed history of success. Conceived as an alternative to war, they have frequently led to more violence. They are a limited tool that can actually encourage nationalism, which is exactly what Putin is trying to do with them. But he cannot avoid the fact that sanctions are crippling his economy and provide a strong incentive for key officials and the public at large to insist on change. They are indeed an alternative to war and can be a centerpiece of Western efforts to promote change in the Russian government. ]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2301181021-lifting-sanctions-on-russia.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2301181021-lifting-sanctions-on-russia.htm Ed Corcoran National Security Russia European economy Russia Russia Ukraine war sanctions Wed, 18 Jan 2023 17:11:11 -0500 Integrating Russia The current turmoil has Western leaders so focused on the war in Ukraine that they have lost sight of what is most important. It's not promoting a Ukrainian victory but integrating Russia. The current turmoil goes back to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ensuing, almost totally unrecognized, strategic blunder: the failure to integrate Russia into the Industrialized World. That was what was done with Germany and Japan after World War II. They are now active and productive members of the global economy. The concept of national dominance that spurred hundreds of years of wars in Europe is gone. This strategic blunder had a military dimension, the expansion of NATO. The Soviet collapse had eliminated the main reason for the alliance, but a Western focus on military dominance undermined the alternative of stressing economic development in East Europe. The NATO expansion was short-sighted but does not pose any real threat to Russia. NATO is a purely defensive alliance and the very thought of it attacking Russia is fanciful. Nevertheless, we see now that the concept of national dominance is not dead at all. Putin is using medieval visions of Russian imperial dominance to support his plutocratic elite and is using a fictional threat from the West to bolster this effort. Ending the appalling Russian activities in Ukraine has become the focus of Western efforts. Nuclear blackmail has intensified the focus on doing everything necessary to stop the current fighting, even comparing the current situation to World War I when nations stumbled into a war that was not in the real interests of any of the participants. But Putin does indeed pose an existential threat. Russia is undermining the entire international system and supporting autocracy globally - Syria, Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela - and providing a template for China. For the first time in decades, there have been serious discussions of nuclear weapons use. Invisible Russian cyber operations further undermine stability. The deepening problem of global warming is being pushed aside as economic distress and hunger rise globally. Of course, the Western use of trillions of dollars of assets to support broad military dominance only intensifies these problems. Nations worldwide are becoming more skeptical of democracy, as vividly demonstrated by the hesitancy of the global community to condemn Russia actions. This skepticism is even domestic as broad sections of the Western public see their own lives upended. The war in Ukraine is only one aspect of the global system unravelling. We need to do what we should have done thirty years ago: integrate Russia into the Industrialized World, build a prosperous and peaceful Europe that includes a dynamic and evolving Russia. That has to be emphasized as the primary focus of Western efforts. We do not need a total victory for Ukraine, we need a total victory for everyone. Integrating Russia would dramatically change the international picture. The West is putting a huge focus on supporting Ukraine militarily and building defense, and this is certainly necessary in the short term. One unfortunate effect of this focus has been to demonize Russians, to see them as complicit in this disaster. In actuality, Russians are every bit as much victims as the Ukrainians. There is obviously a need to end active fighting as rapidly as possible, so a cease fire is a necessary first step. Maintaining NATO cohesion is critical and needs to include at least an association with Ukraine in a unified response to the Russia aggression. NATO needs to make clear that a cease fire cannot be the last step, that the fundamental objective is peace and prosperity for everyone in Europe, including Russia. And that peace in Europe will facilitate a new era of international development that works for everyone. A cease fire would bring immediate and significant benefits to Ukraine, expedite broad Western efforts to rebuild the country and support grain shipments to the world. Envisioning a new and thriving economy would certainly be attractive for Ukrainians. The stumbling block is the obvious concern of Zelensky and many Ukrainians that a cease fire would be the last step, freezing Russian control of broad areas of Ukraine. To facilitate a cease fire, the West has to strongly emphasize that this would NOT be the last step, but fundamentally a shift from military confrontation to socio-economic and diplomatic one with the clear objective of promoting the emergence of a more progressive Russia. A cease fire would also bring significant benefits to Russia, ending its incompetent and disastrous attempt to revive a medieval Russian imperialism. The stumbling block here is Putin's reluctance to accept any failure of achieving his goals (though he has already acknowledged Ukraine's sovereignty), as well as plutocratic elements pushing to intensify the war. The war has badly undermined Putin's position, though it is hard to assess just how much. Nevertheless, a cease fire could clearly be attractive to significant portions of the government. The central struggle is a battle for the minds of the Russian people. We need to work to remove Putin who is personally responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, widespread destruction and extensive social fragmentation. But we need to avoid going from bad to worse by empowering even more radical elements. We need a broad outreach to Russian minds, but focusing at the street level does not seem the best option. Widespread unrest remains unlikely, particularly since many of the most strongly anti-Putin young people have fled the country. Broad demonstrations would immediately face brutal repression. It seems that the minds we should most focus on are those of mid-level economic and government officials, people who have some potential for influence on the government but are not directly involved in its plutocratic network. These people are well aware of the disastrous impact Putin is having on Russia and the need for change. Everyday Russians need to be encouraged to reach out to their local managers and officials and push them to promote change. The regime can do a good job of repressing demonstrations but cannot easily counter friction within the government. In the short term, shifts in Russian minds could also be a significant factor in pushing the regime to a cease fire. Such a quest for Russian minds is a double challenge. Russian culture has long stressed a Russian primacy, which Putin has very effectively used to support his own warped view of Russian ascendency, while he has also very effectively squelched independent media operations within Russia. It is stress on several different topics that can force change in Russia: - Broad Publicity on Putin's War. The international community is well aware of the wide destruction and war crimes perpetrated by Russian forces. The war is being waged not for the benefit of the people but the plutocrats. Information on the war and corruption needs to be continuously and systematically pushed to the Russian public. - Russian War Casualties and Military Losses. These have been carefully kept from the Russian people and need to also be broadly disseminated. The Russian people have always been proud of their army; they need to be shown how much it has degraded. - Ukrainian Development. This will stand in stark contrast to Russian economic decline and turmoil in occupied Ukrainian areas. - Russian Opposition. Putin's control of the media is hardly absolute, particularly with Russian émigré groups supporting domestic opposition elements. Thousands of Russian families have been directly impacted while the mismanaged mobilization has already generated broad discontent. - Potential areas of cooperation. This includes established programs in space, realignment of energy supplies, broad commercial ties, cooperation in technical and medial modernization, expansion of tourism and cultural programs and of course arms control. Spreading information within Russia on these topics can do much to undermine Putin and his plutocracy. An essential element has to be working with media that reaches to the Russian people. Many of these outlets are based outside Russia, typically with major staff of Russian emigres. So the effort has to reach out to the Russian diaspora, encouraging them to reach out to families and associates within Russia. This obviously includes recent emigrees from Russia that are strongly anti-Putin and certainly interested in a return to a more progressive and welcoming Russia. But it also includes millions of ethnic Russians now citizens of other countries, including Ukraine and the Baltics. The outreach has to include the potential for these Russians to play a positive role in their countries of residence, facilitating collaboration with a new Russia. So rather than defaming ethnic Russians as supportive of Putin's repressive regime, the outreach has to acknowledge that they have also been victims and a new Russian government can reaffirm their historic contribution to European development. Western economic organization, particularly those that had active operations in Russia before the war, can also be a significant help in outreach. They can talk directly with former Russian partners and stress their interest in resuming activities once the current crisis is over. Russians at the mid-level of government and the economy need to see real prospects of new economic ties. Any vision of a peaceful and prosperous Europe has to look beyond military confrontation and minimize points of contention. It is imperative to stress that the Industrialized World cannot prosper in a vacuum; prosperity depends on a supportive international situation. This is obviously apparent when we look at refugee flows, the impact of global energy prices, the importance of global trade and supply chains, not to mention pandemics. Global warming has often been dismissed as exaggerated or distant, but the increasing impact of wildfires, water shortages, sea level rise, and more intense storms underlines the need for concerted action. So we need to push for a cease fire and broad development in Ukraine, but as a transition to continuing pressure on Russia to provide a more progressive government. It is not pressure from the outside in that will change Russia, but pressure from the bottom up. The war in Ukraine is only one aspect of our quest to develop a peaceful and prosperous world, not a world dependent on Western military dominance but rather on broad socio-economic collaboration that benefits everyone. http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2211081018-integrating-russia.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2211081018-integrating-russia.htm Ed Corcoran peace in Europe Russian democracy Ukraine war Tue, 08 Nov 2022 18:54:28 -0500 Monroe Doctrine Resurrected Wings-of-mexico.jpg The Wings of Mexico in Mexico City. Mexico is a beacon of political stability compared to some other Central American neighbors, including El Salvador, a country which has exported myriad asylum seekers to the United States fleeing violence. Unification of Spanish speaking lands through Mexico's leadership offers the promise of stability, reduced violence, stronger institutions, an improved sense of cultural identity. There are regularly so-called caravans of migrants coming from Central America to the United States seeking a better life. In America, of course, migrants have literally built the country since its inception. As American writers have noted since at least America's 100th birthday America is the world's great melting pot. In purely economic terms there is no disputing, however, that the importation of relatively unskilled labor from other countries displaces the economic livelihoods of swaths of American laborers. The result is a sense of some of the people born here in America reaching the conclusion their leaders have forgotten about them. A competent, secure, and prosperous greater Mexico promises better lives to the people of Central America, the Caribbean, and perhaps the northern part of South America. Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Colombia, and perhaps Cuba might all be subsumed under a unified greater Mexico. Greater Mexico as envisioned would share a common language, and more importantly, a common religion. The social glue binding these nations together has threads of what has made America's cross-state commerce the envy of the world. Mexico, Caribbean nations, and Central American nations are ubiquitously Roman Catholic. A vision for Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean which could at once improve their living standards also provides relief for America on its southern border and reduces the pressure from immigration on America's working class. The American security picture is shaped to its east and its west by the greatest natural defense systems on earth, the exceptionally advantageous Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. To America's north, Canada is a reliable partner with democratic elections. To the South, Mexico is a reliable national partner with robust democratic elections. Mexico's southern neighbors have experienced strife which has poured over into a continental migration phenomenon. People in certain Central American countries are calling out for help. Migrants risk everything in some cases paying coyotes to reach America. America's relationship with her southern neighbors is wise to address the root causes of civil instability, violence, and institutional approaches to wicked problems. Net migration of Mexicans to America is no longer positive. Mexicans love Mexico. The improving Mexican economy created sufficient incentives for people in Mexico to stay in Mexico and pass on migrating north. The Statute of Liberty Enlightening the World stands tall welcoming your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shores. All the better then, that the hope America offers to the world be shared with people in the Central American countries from which many begin the long, dangerous, arduous trek to America. Better to see a safe, prosperous, secure Central America, Caribbean, and South America for the spread of America's most inspiring export: hope. America is truly the light of the world, as the first 246 years of her rise has shown. From a land of Americans unsatisfied with taxation without representation to the land of technological and medical innovation, America's story, her 21st century destiny, must include a productive, prosperous relationship with her neighbors to the South as President James Monroe averred in 1823. The cultural and political unification of Spanish-speakers in Central America, the Caribbean, and South America is an example of how the United States may leverage a strong relationship with Mexico to create stability and prosperity throughout the region. Diplomacy yet may prove to be a way to strengthen the American economic prosperity at home -- giving those forgotten Americans reason to believe their public servants are looking out for them, too. The Monroe Doctrine in the original form is rightly proclaimed today for the good of our countrymen and countrywomen, and the people around us, too. "America, North and South, has a set of interests distinct from those of Europe, and peculiarly her own. She should therefore have a system of her own, separate and apart from that of Europe. While the last is laboring to become the domicil of despotism, our endeavor should surely be, to make our hemisphere that of freedom." Third United States President Thomas Jefferson to Fifth United States President James Monroe, October 24th, 1823. ]]> http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2211031017-monroe-doctrine-resurrected-7.htm http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/2211031017-monroe-doctrine-resurrected-7.htm Grant Ferowich General Interest National Security Central America immigration Mexico and US Thu, 03 Nov 2022 22:20:07 -0500