Reliable Security Information


Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out and value information that confirms pre-existing beliefs while discarding information that proves these ideas wrong. The independence of the intelligence community was intended to offset confirmation bias in the rest of the government. During the Cold War, Air Force intelligence tended to reach conclusions that favored whatever weapon the service was currently selling [hence the Bomber Gap]. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was partially a result of confirmation bias in a military establishment that had little use for intelligence. There was more than enough confirmation bias in evidence in the run up to the second Gulf War in 2002-2003. The Neo-Cons thought it would be a cakewalk. The anti-war movement thought there would be no war [how can you have a proper anti-war movement without a war??].


Now comes Richard Grenell to become the new Director of National Intelligence. He would replace Joseph Maguire, who has been purged for testifying before Congress about the Ukraine scandal whistleblower.


Grenell is an outspoken policy advocate. Washington needs more job opportunities for such people, who tend to get shunted aside in the government hiring process. But the DNI job is the last place in the world for such a person. He will tell the President what he wants to hear. He will deny evidence of Russian subversion of American democracy. And he will generate a great deal of sound and fury investigating Trump's Moscow-inspired conspiracy theories intended to hide the hand of Moscow in American politics.


Yet another Manchurian candidate embedded in the government at the highest levels. Where is James Angleton when he is needed??

 
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